According to the World Disasters Report, climate and weather-related disasters have increased nearly 35% every decade since the 1990s. Over the past decade, this has resulted in an estimated 83% of all disasters being caused by extreme weather, killing more than 410,000 people and affecting the lives of 1.7 billion people. New research by Oxfam estimates that funding requirements for UN humanitarian appeals linked to extreme weather are eight times higher than they were 20 years ago, and over the past five years nearly half of appeal requirements have gone unmet.
Strikingly, more than half of the states in the world that are most vulnerable to climate change (14 out of 25) are also affected by conflict. People enduring conflict are not only among the most vulnerable to the climate and environmental crises, but they are also among those most neglected by climate action, with non-conflict affected countries receiving three times as much financial support commitments than countries affected by conflict.
The effects of climate change on (resource-based) conflicts are often indirect, complex, and linked to political, economic, and social conflict factors, including social inequalities, low economic development, and ineffective institutions. The emerging consensus is that climate change and conflict effect each other mutually, but that climatic factors can be just one of many drivers of conflict. Some studies indicate that adverse consequences associated with climate change—water scarcity, crop failure, food insecurity, economic shocks, erratic rainfall, ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, and in this context related migration, and displacement—can aggravate risks of conflict and violence. When people are forced to move away from their homes, they lose their land, jobs, homes, social networks and access to food, competition on dwindling natural resources is growing and can be setting the stage for more fragility, conflicts between user groups and instability. Many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions. Other studies however argue there is weak and contradictory evidence attesting to any simple, causal chain between climate change and conflict. They also stress that disaster events (or activities) can also promote cooperation and collaboration and enhance social cohesion if that is rightly managed and aspired for by key stakeholders.
It is around these intersections that Oxfam Novib is looking to design a new, large, cross-cutting programme, and is seeking the support of a consultant to conduct a scoping study to inform its analytical framework and programming. This also follows a desire to link several strategic goals within Oxfam Novib, linking work on the climate crisis (either through programmatic work or influencing), with work on making the world a more secure place, supporting communities to be better prepared and more resilient to deal with climate shocks and political turmoil. Following its 2030 manifesto, to achieve systemic change, Oxfam Novib is continuously looking to innovate its ways of working and adapt to changes. Hence, a pilot project has started to make most of internal resources to address the abovementioned interlinkages. For this new Oxfam programme to effectively address climate change and (resource) conflict it is crucial that the intersection between climate, conflict and fragility is well understood, and that programme teams consider contextual factors (including local, national, global policies) that may further affect these interlinkages, as well as have a good understanding of the risks and opportunities alike.
 Footing the bill: fair finance for loss and damage in an era of escalating climate impacts, Oxfam International (June 2022)
 When Rain Turns to Dust, ICRC (July 2020)
 Special Coverage on the COP, International Crisis Group (November 2022)
The objective of this scoping study is to collect theoretical and programmatic evidence on the interlinkages between climate, conflict and fragility to inform Oxfam’s programming, both in terms of ensuring impact on the ground - to support people at scale - and for influencing work towards policymakers, governments, international bodies, private investors and companies, funding organisations, the wider donor community (both humanitarian and development donors), and other related stakeholders. The purpose of the scoping study is twofold, mainly to:
- Inform Oxfam’s understanding of the climate, fragility and conflict nexus, providing Oxfam with a solid analytical overview of latest theoretical thinking around the intersections
- Provide recommendations to Oxfam for a future multi-country programme
The scoping study will be used by Oxfam affiliate and country office teams alike, to guide them in adapting a climate, conflict and fragility integrated approach in programming, and more specifically in design workshops to come to concept notes and programme documents. The study will also be used for input into inter/national advocacy work. Ultimately, the scoping study will contribute to the delivery of the pilot activities and then the overall implementation of the new programme, and also help determine how Oxfam can add most value to work on the climate and conflict nexus. For more information on the objective of this study, please see the full Terms of Reference here.
Thematic and geographic scope
Following the above objective and purpose of the scoping study, the consultant will be asked concretely to answer a set of guiding questions, which can be found in the full Terms of References here.
A deep dive will be expected to be made into two countries/regions in sub-Saharan Africa. The selection thereof will be communicated to the consultant upon starting the assignment. There will be a focus on most ‘dual’ climate change and conflict affected areas - including at least the Horn of Africa region for sustainable recovery from the ongoing drought emergency, and one more region to allow for a broader evidence base and positioning of Oxfam on the topic, as well as cross-learning between regions.
The consultant will be expected to draft a final scoping study report of maximum 40 pages. The consultant is free to determine the report outline and template, but the report must have a clear executive summary, a recommendation section, address the guiding questions (see full ToR) and include at least the below deliverables:
Analytical and theoretical framework
A desk literature review: an overview of literature on interlinkages climate, fragility and conflict, summarized in several domains and on which Oxfam can base future justifications for programmatic interventions and advocacy.
Needs analysis: based on the desk review and interviews, a global needs analysis highlighting the need for interventions of this type.
Case studies: of what worked well (successes) and what has not worked (challenges) and why, mainly on organisational level (how have other organisations set themselves up and approached the climate and conflict nexus).
Risk analysis: highlighting the risks which exist implementing across the climate and conflict nexus, and what mitigation can be put in place.
List of practical recommendations: for next steps to address the intersections between climate change, fragility and conflict.
Project mapping: mapping of internal and external projects, activities, and tools with proven proof of concept. To collect analytical tools and participatory /multi-stakeholder practices.
Stakeholder analysis: on building network/ relationships with relevant stakeholders (local, regional, global, including donors), and to involve them in research and (content) development scoping study (to ensure shared understanding/ ownership of the problems, solutions and ownership) – include any examples of donor innovations.
Case studies: of wat worked well (successes) and what has not worked (challenges) and why, mainly on project/programme level, including on activities, approaches, integrated analysis, multi-stakeholder initiatives, donor innovations and how success was determined in terms of methodologies.
In addition to the above, a deep dive into two countries or regions will be expected (maximum 5 pages each). The consultant will be expected to provide an analysis per country as to how climate, conflict and fragility interact, outline what programmatic opportunities exist, who the key actors and stakeholders are per geographical region are, on which partnerships and influencing agendas can be built. The consultant will be provided with country and/or region selection at the beginning of the assignment.
Preliminary Planning and Budget
The budget for the scoping study is based on the number of days the consultant is expected to work on this assignment. Following the above process, timeline and deliverables, it is expected that the consultant will complete the work in 36 working days. The total budget for this scoping study is 21,175 EUR (including VAT), to be paid in tranches of 40% as first payment, and 60% following the satisfactory completion of the deliverables. The consultant is expected to cover all related costs to this assignment within this budget. Remuneration is based on submission of final deliverables as mentioned in the preliminary planning. An expected planning with timings and delivery dates can be found in the full ToR here.
This procurement procedure is organised to contract a consultant to deliver the scoping study. Bidders are asked to take part in the competitive negotiated procedure for the above-mentioned contract. These potential suppliers are asked to make a proposal based on the administrative criteria and the award criteria mentioned below. These proposals are assessed on their compliance, quality and price. The contract will be awarded to the organisation with the economically most advantageous proposal. This means that not only the price, but all award criteria will be taken into consideration.
Oxfam Novib withholds the right to conduct interviews with one or more potential Bidders before an award decision is made. Purpose of the interview is to seek further clarification on the submitted quotations and learn more about the background and previous experiences of the potential supplier and their teams.
Confirmation of the intention to submit a proposal/offer
Bidders are asked to confirm their intention to participate in this process after receiving this request for proposal.
- Any questions, remarks or requests for clarification can be send to firstname.lastname@example.org, before 1/03/2023, 12:00 hours CET.
- The questions will be answered to all applicants no later than 03/03/2023, 12:00 hours CET.
- Offers should reach Oxfam Novib no later than 10/03/2023, 12:00 hours.CET
- A tentative award will be provided by 17/03/2023, provided prior check of the references supplied by the successful service provider.
- The estimated date of contract signature is planned on 20/03/2023.
To be shortlisted and evaluated through a set of award criteria (see full ToR) your bids should include items listed in the full ToR here.
Bidders' proposals must be valid for 90 days after the expiring date of the RFP. If this is not feasible, the bidder may propose another term. The offer/proposal will include, but are not limited to, methodology, prices, conditions, service levels and other information. If the bidder obtains the contract, all information from the RFP and its offer will be legally binding.
The bids should be submitted by e-mail to: email@example.com. The Subject Line of the message should be: Scoping Study Climate, Conflict and Fragility - Bids Submission – [your company / individual name]. We strongly recommend bidders to submit their bids via a digital link in their submission email. This link should enable us to access your company digital platform/ cloud and the folder created with your proposal for this RFP. Make sure to grant Oxfam Novib contact person viewer and downloader rights. Using a cloud platform will ensure a safe digital environment and smooth upload of the files preventing you from size limitation from Outlook/ email. Note: Any bidder who adds another Oxfam email address to their proposal will be disqualified.
The evaluation of the proposals will be based on the best value for money criterion covering and meeting technical quality and price of the proposal. Oxfam is committed to upholding the highest standards in all our business and welcomes all exceptionalities, also amongst our suppliers. We know we are all unique and special and value initiative to incorporate in our procurement procedures, sustainable development principles and values of inclusion of people with functional diversity and groups at risk of exclusion and inequality. We highly encourage you to share with us any elements promoting the latter.
The evaluation of the offers will start with an assessment of the administrative criteria, mentioned above. These criteria are all knock-out (mandatory) criteria. If these criteria are not met in your offer, this offer will be put aside and the award criteria of this proposal will not be assessed. The proposals that meet the administrative criteria will be assessed against: 1) Technical offer/ approach paper, 2) Financial offer. Note that the maximum budget for this assignment is 21,175 EUR (including VAT)
The contractor will have to make provisions for covering all costs associated with the assignment. This includes, but is not limited to, the following:
Planning of the audit process and all other costs associated with the implementation and delivery of the final report;
Secretarial/office-related costs which may include communications (phone, fax, telecommunications, mail, photocopying, courier etc), report production and secretarial services both in the Contractor’s Headquarters and/or service provider’s home office;
The service provider will be in charge of the secretarial and logistic arrangements for all consultations with stakeholders.
A full list of evaluation and points of award criteria can be found in the full ToR here. If needed, interviews may be organised with the Bidders with the highest scoring quotations by day/month/year. Purpose of the interview is to seek further clarification on the submitted quotations and learn more about the background and previous experiences of proposed service providers and their competencies. After the interviews the total points scored on the award criteria can be reassessed. If a selection can be made based on the received quotations, then there is no need for interviews.
Issuance of this RFP does not constitute an award commitment on the part of Oxfam, nor does it commit Oxfam to pay for costs incurred in the preparation and submission of a bid. The attached Annexes A-B are an integral part of this RFP. By submitting a valid offer to this RFP, the bidder agrees to adhere to these annexes. Oxfam may contact bidders to confirm contacts, addresses, bid amount and to confirm that the bid was submitted for this solicitation. For a full list of other conditions of this Request for Proposal, with regards to false statements in the bid, conflict of interest disclosures, Oxfam’s right to select and reject, and other reserved rights, please see the full Terms of References here.
Oxfam is committed to upholding the highest standards in all our business providing high-quality services and products. Complying with all laws and regulations and ensuring fair competition are fundamental to this commitment. Oxfam Supplier Code of Conduct (Annex A) and Non Staff Code of Conduct (Annex B) expresses the expectations we hold for all of Oxfam suppliers and they are required to sign and submit the attached Codes of Conduct. Non-Staff Code of Conduct applies for any self-employed individuals or contracted employees of suppliers who are working on Oxfam sites, or who have access to Oxfam materials, or who may represent Oxfam in any manner but are not part of Oxfam’s legal entity)
Reporting of fraud and unethical behaviour
To report fraud, abuse and unethical behaviour, contact by
Online: Misconduct Webform - https://oxfam.clue-webforms.co.uk/webform/misconduct/en
Oxfam Novib may require the Bidder to clarify its quotation and/or provide supporting documentation. However, the Bidder may not modify its quotation after the deadline for submission of quotations mentioned in the deadlines section above, third bullet. For a full list of disclaimers, please refer to the full ToR here.
 If no company cloud, free options are available e.g. Box, google drive, dropbox.